Estonian electricity price forecast
Vooluhind shows Estonia’s electricity spot price (Nord Pool, EE bidding zone) and forecasts the hourly electricity price up to 96 hours ahead. Most Estonian homes are on a spot-price plan, where every hour costs differently — so it pays to know when electricity is cheap and when it’s expensive. Unlike apps that only display the already-published day-ahead price, Vooluhind also makes a price forecast and highlights the cheapest hours of the day.
How the price forecast is made
The forecasting model is a ridge regression trained on roughly two years of Nord Pool hourly prices. The inputs are weather and system features: a regional wind index (Finland, Sweden SE4, Latvia and Lithuania wind at 100 m), solar radiation, expected demand load, day of week and the recent price level. Wind and solar push the price down, demand load pushes it up — weekends are cheaper.
We measure accuracy with a walk-forward backtest: at the H+24h horizon the mean error (MAE) is about 26.4 €/MWh, against the naive method’s 52.19 €/MWh — about 49% better forecast accuracy. For every more distant hour we also show the uncertainty band (p10–p90) to keep the forecast honest.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the electricity spot price?
- The electricity spot price (or market price) is the hourly price set on Nord Pool's day-ahead market. Most Estonian homes are on a spot-price plan, where each hour's price changes with demand and generation. The next day's prices are published every day at around 14:00.
- How accurate is the price forecast?
- Based on a walk-forward backtest, the model's mean error (MAE) at the H+24h horizon is about 26.4 €/MWh, against the naive baseline's 52.19 €/MWh — roughly 49% better forecast accuracy (skill).
- When is electricity cheapest?
- Electricity is usually cheapest at night and in the early morning, and on windy days when a lot of wind and solar power is generated. The most expensive hours are usually the morning and evening consumption peaks. Vooluhind highlights the three cheapest and the single most expensive hour of the day separately, so you can schedule the washing machine, heat pump or car charging for a cheap time.
- Does the shown price include VAT and the grid fee?
- The shown price is the energy component of the electricity market plus 22% VAT (c/kWh). The grid fee, electricity excise duty and renewable energy charge are NOT included — they are added on your grid operator's and seller's bill. The price is informational and unofficial.
- How far ahead does the price forecast reach?
- Vooluhind's model forecasts the electricity price up to 96 hours (4 days) ahead. For the nearest day the firm day-ahead price already published on the exchange is also available; more distant hours are the model's forecast with an uncertainty band (p10–p90).
- Where does the data come from?
- Prices and system data come from Elering (Nord Pool / Baltic market data), weather data from Open-Meteo, and the wind and solar generation forecast from ENTSO-E. The data is updated automatically every hour.
Data sources
Price and system data: Elering (Nord Pool / Baltic market data). Weather data: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0). Wind and solar generation forecast: ENTSO-E. The price is the energy component of the electricity market plus 22% VAT; the grid fee and excise duty are not included.
Data is provided “as is” and may contain errors or be delayed; forecasts are probabilistic and not a guarantee. Informational and unofficial — please verify important decisions against official sources.