Electricity price forecast
An hourly forecast of Estonia's electricity price up to 72 hours (3days) ahead. The next day's price is usually already settled on the Nord Pool exchange; for the days beyond, Vooluhind's machine-learning model gives an estimate with an uncertainty band — so you know today when electricity will be cheap over the coming days. For a longer horizon, get in touch. For hour-by-hour views, see today's and tomorrow's electricity price.
Estonia's electricity spot price right now is 0.07 c/kWh (1 €/MWh, incl. 22% VAT).
The coming days at a glance
| Day | Average | Cheapest hour | Most expensive | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today · 21 June | 3.68 c/kWh | 00:00 · -0.00 c/kWh | 22:00 · 18.10 c/kWh | day-ahead |
| Tomorrow · 22 June | 2.37 c/kWh | 15:00 · 0.18 c/kWh | 01:00 · 15.27 c/kWh | day-ahead |
| Day after tomorrow · 23 June | 6.61 c/kWh | 11:00 · 2.33 c/kWh | 21:00 · 15.15 c/kWh | forecast |
| Wednesday · 24 June | 5.02 c/kWh | 15:00 · 0.72 c/kWh | 07:00 · 8.81 c/kWh | forecast · partial (16 h) |
Prices are c/kWh incl. 22% VAT (energy component; grid fees and excise not included). The forecast is probabilistic and carries no guarantee — the official price settles in Nord Pool's day-ahead auction.
Need a longer forecast?
The chart shows an hourly electricity-price forecast for the coming days. For a longer horizon, get in touch — we'll send it to you by email.
How accurate is the forecast?
Accuracy is measured continuously: the model re-forecasts each past day using only the data known at that moment, and the result is compared with the realized spot price. Based on a walk-forward backtest, the model's mean absolute error (MAE) at the H+24h horizon is about 27.11 €/MWh versus 55.72 €/MWh for a naive baseline — the price forecast is roughly 51% more accurate than repeating last week's same hour.
The further out the hour, the larger the uncertainty. That is why every forecast hour carries a p10–p90 band — shown as the shaded area on the chart.
How the forecast is made
The model is a gradient-boosted decision-tree ensemble (GBM) trained on about two years of Nord Pool hourly prices. Inputs: a regional wind index (Finnish, Swedish, Latvian and Lithuanian wind at 100 m), solar radiation, expected demand, power-plant and interconnector outages (ENTSO-E), and the recent price level. The forecast refreshes daily right after Nord Pool publishes the next day's official prices (~14:00 EET). Read more about how the price forms.
Frequently asked questions
- How far ahead does the electricity price forecast reach?
- The model forecasts up to 72 hours, i.e. 3 days ahead, hour by hour. The next day's prices are usually already settled on the exchange; hours beyond that are a model forecast with an uncertainty band (p10–p90). For a longer horizon, contact us at info@vooluhind.ee.
- What will the electricity price be tomorrow?
- Tomorrow (Monday 22 June) the official day-ahead price is published: the daily average is about 2.37 c/kWh, the cheapest hour is at 15:00 (~0.18 c/kWh) and the most expensive at 01:00 (~15.27 c/kWh).
- How accurate is the electricity price forecast?
- Based on a walk-forward backtest, the model's mean absolute error (MAE) at the H+24h horizon is about 27.11 €/MWh versus 55.72 €/MWh for a naive baseline — the price forecast is roughly 51% more accurate than repeating last week's same hour. The further out the hour, the larger the uncertainty — price spikes are the hardest to pin down, which is why every hour also carries a p10–p90 band.
- What moves the electricity price over the coming days?
- Wind and solar generation, demand (cold weather, morning and evening peaks), the availability of power plants and interconnectors (e.g. EstLink), and fuel prices. Windy weather pushes the spot price down; calm, cold spells and unexpected outages push it up.
- Does Vooluhind forecast other energy prices (gas, district heating)?
- No — Vooluhind is an electricity forecast: we only forecast Estonia's electricity spot price (Nord Pool, EE bidding zone). We do not forecast other energy carriers.